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Турецкий след в Сирии

Турецкий след в Сирии Избранное

Резкое обострение ситуации в Сирии вследствие ракетного удара, нанесенного американскими крылатыми ракетами по базе Сирийской арабской армии «Аш-Шайрат» в провинции Хомс, требует по-новому оценить расклад военно-политических сил в регионе. Особая роль в этом раскладе принадлежит Турции.

Инцидент с химическими отравляющими веществами в городе Хан-Шейхуне 4 апреля произошёл в момент наибольшего за последние месяцы ухудшения позиций Турции и незадолго до предстоящего 16 апреля общетурецкого конституционного референдума. Турецкие СМИ напрямую увязывают «сирийское» и «конституционное» направления в политике президента Эрдогана и открыто говорят о провале операции «Щит Евфрата», которая должна была сделать Турцию одним из ключевых игроков на сирийском поле в военном плане.

Вот как обрисовывает сложившуюся обстановку издание «Birgün»: «Можно ли операцию «Щит Евфрата» представить историей успеха, как утверждает турецкое политическое руководство? Остаётся загадкой, что именно было «успехом» в операции, которая началась семь месяцев назад, продлилась 216 дней, при этом 71 военный погиб и около 300 военных были ранены…»
По мнению «Birgün», операция турецкой армии в Сирии преследовала три главные цели: «отодвинуть от сирийско-турецкой границы боевиков ИГИЛ (запрещенная в России организация – «КТ»); помешать Отрядам народной самообороны Западного Курдистана(ОНСЗК) объединить контролируемые ими кантоны; создать под своим контролем на севере Сирии буферную зону, разделяющую сирийских и турецких курдов. Однако ни одна из этих задач так и не была решена. «Birgün» обращает внимание на то, что завершение операции «Щит Евфрата» совпало по времени с визитом в Анкару госсекретаря США Рекса Тиллерсона. По данным издания, Тиллерсон в ультимативном порядке потребовал от президента Эрдогана свернуть военную операцию в Сирии с тем, чтобы «успокоить» курдские отряды, которым Вашингтон отводит важную роль в собственных операциях (прежде всего, в Ракке). Журналисты «Birgün» считают, что «США стремятся освежить свой имидж на международной арене, примерив на себя роль «героя», освободившего Ракку от ИГИЛ», при этом Вашингтону важно обезопасить контролируемый курдами город Манбидж от возможного турецкого наступления, которое значилось в первоначальных военных планах Анкары.
Активизация вооружённого вмешательства США в Сирии вызывает в Турции озабоченность не только в силу укрепляющегося американо-курдского военно-политического альянса, но и в более широком контексте попыток Вашингтона спровоцировать конфликт в треугольнике Москва-Анкара-Тегеран. «Здесь на передний план, — пишет турецкая газета «Milli Gazete», — выходят следующие три момента, которые беспокоят наших американских партнёров в отношениях с Турцией:
1) турецко-российское сотрудничество и его влияние на Ближний Восток;
2) отсутствие чёткой позиции Турции в отношении Ирана;
3) поиски Турцией баланса во внешней политике и её желание по-новому определить отношения с Западом».
Возникновение турецко-российско-иранской инициативы, считает «Milli Gazete», «привело к взрыву гнева на американском фланге».
Не менее озабочены турецкие СМИ возможностью усугубления из-за действий США гуманитарной катастрофы в Сирии и возможностью появления новых потоков беженцев. «Новая гуманитарная трагедия и волна миграции на фоне хаоса в Идлибе, — пишет «Hürriyet», — больше всего коснутся Турции. Для предотвращения этих событий необходима активизация дипломатических усилий и координация действий со всеми игроками».
Однако эти здравые голоса в прессе диссонируют с тем, какую позицию заняла в последние дни официальная Анкара. Комментируя последние события в Сирии, Эрдоган назвал своего сирийского коллегу Башара Асада «злом» и призвал Россию пересмотреть отношения с ним, перестать «защищать Асада» и присоединиться к позиции США по Сирии.
Вероятно, характер «турецкого фактора» в Сирии будет во многом определён исходом конституционного референдума 16 апреля. Прогнозы социологов на этот счёт по-прежнему противоречивы. Так, согласно данным службы Qriously, 58,3% из тех, кто уже принял решение, как голосовать, поддерживают предлагаемое Эрдоганом расширение президентских полномочий, но разрыв между «да» и «нет» понемногу сокращается. А социологическая служба NET уже сейчас прогнозируетпоражение сторонников конституционной реформы, которые, согласно её оценке, наберут 49,2% голосов.
Победа Эрдогана на референдуме и укрепление его президентской власти наверняка придадут новый импульс турецкому военному вмешательству в Сирии. Неудача эрдогановского конституционного проекта тоже этим планам не помешает, но в таком случае в Турции может начаться очередной внутриполитический кризис, чреватый роспуском парламента и проведением новых всеобщих выборов.
Наконец, в Анкаре, безусловно, учтут итоги первого визита в Россию госсекретаря США Рекса Тиллерсона, особенно в условиях обозначившихся в команде Трампа разногласий по вопросу об отношении Вашингтона к официальному Дамаску и президенту Башару Асаду лично.
Одно можно сказать с определённостью: турецкий след в Сирии будет продолжать петлять, как он петляет уже сейчас, и может стать ещё более запутанным.

Петр ИСКЕНДЕРОВ, Старший научный сотрудник Института славяноведения РАН, кандидат исторических наук, международный обозреватель МИА «Россия сегодня»

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